Tag: Red wave

Trending for autumn: Red

By Steve Woodward

Moore County is proving to be a microcosm of a growing national trend among Republican mid-term voters in early voting states. If it holds up through Election Day, the trend is pointing toward a mighty Red Tsunami.

“We are well on our way to a record mid-term turnout (among registered Republicans) in Moore County,” reports our volunteer data analyst, Josh Lowery.

Through 10 days of early voting, 5,466 Republicans have voted as of Oct. 29. Analyzing Day 10 specifically, Republicans accounted for 43.7 percent of the day’s total turn out (including Democrats and the unaffiliated). That percentage is 3.1 percent higher than total GOP registration in the county, also an encouraging trend.

“I would expect (October 30-31) to be roughly the same, (with) maybe a slight increase.” Lowery reports. “But watch for (Nov. 1-2) to see larger spikes — somewhere around 1,700-1,900 would not surprise me — as people realize they don’t have much longer to early vote.”

Meanwhile, three of the largest states also are experiencing motivated Republican turn out during early voting. California Republicans are heading to the polls in such disproportionately high numbers compared to Democrats, “and younger (Democrat leaning) voters are not returning their ballots at the same rate,” Political Data Inc.’s Paul Mitchell tells CBS Bay Area affiliate KPIX.

The KPIX report adds: “For Democrats, the path to winning a majority in the (U.S.) house includes flipping seven congressional seats in Central and Southern California. Mitchell says, to do that, Democrats need exceptionally high voter turnout.”

In Texas, reports the Houston Chronicle, ““Ahead of the Nov. 6 election, voter registration spiked, reaching a record high of more than 15.7 million. From the primary until the final day of voter registration in October, roughly 400,000 people were added to the rolls, election records show.” Republicans greatly outnumber Democrats, but it’s clear that both sides are engaged.

Early voting began Oct. 22 in Florida, where turn out that day was twice as large as for the last mid-term in 2014.

“Florida’s statewide turnout for the Nov. 6 election already exceeds the turnout for 16 states and Washington, D.C., for the entire 2016 presidential election,” reports the Palm Beach Post. “Of the ballots cast in Florida so far, 43.4 percent are from registered Republicans and 39.1 percent are from registered Democrats.”

Writes political analyst and author Gerard Lameiro: “While intended to hurt President Trump and keep Republicans from holding the House during the mid-term elections, all the (Democrat attempts to diminish Trump) have worked to enhance the Conservative Red Wave. Instead of creating or building a Blue Wave, the Red Wave continues. Republican voter intensity exceeds the much heralded (and Leftist desired) Blue Wave.”

Despite many encouraging trends, it is important to remember that 13 states do not conduct early voting, and that Election Day, Nov. 6, remains pivotal in determining the ultimate fate of Republicans.

That means that every early voter in our Moore GOP ranks still has one major task ahead. Find friends and neighbors with transportation challenges. Drive them to their polling places on Election Day.

Wave goodbye to “the wave”

The far-Left media (AKA, the media) was gleeful after seeing turnout numbers for Minnesota and Wisconsin primaries on August 14. Democrat voters surpassed Republican voters by more than 250,000 in Minnesota, and outvoted the GOP by more than 80,000 in Wisconsin polling places. Overall voter turnout also was higher compared to recent primaries.

The numbers aligned with an ongoing narrative that a “blue wave” is coming this November with Democrat voters rising up to regain control of the U.S. House of Representatives, which would stall President Donald Trump’s agenda indefinitely and allow House Democrats to stir up scenarios under which Trump might be impeached.

Buried amid the chest pounding the morning after the two primaries was an astute analysis by Professor David Canon at the University of Wisconsin, a liberal bastion. He warned against reading too much into Democrat turnout “given several hot contests” in the state.  The same can be said for Minnesota:

“Competitive races for open seats, and partisan enthusiasm for many of the candidates in a highly polarized climate, fueled the high turnout,” said Kathryn Pearson, political science professor at the University of Minnesota in Minneapolis.

As primaries continue toward setting the stage for November, many tuned-in Republicans have rejected the threat of a “blue wave” because most Democrats (such as political novice Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in New York’s 14th Congressional district) are running on a “resist Trump” platform, nothing more.

Ocasio-Cortez is pushing a Socialist agenda amid a booming U.S. economy. Brilliant.

Further rejection of the blue wave theory is provided by none other than a CBS News pollster whose newly released book, “Where Did You Get That Number?”, examines why 2016 polls never saw Trump’s stunning victory coming.

Pollster and author Anthony Salvanto points out that two polls forecast the possibility of a Trump victory in 2016. Both were tracking polls. Salvanto told The New York Post he is “relying more on CBS’s ongoing tracking poll and less on random-sample telephone polling ahead of this year’s midterm elections.”

One of the key findings of Salvanto’s tracking poll suggests Democrats are unlikely to find conditions suitable for wave surfing this November. He tells the Post:

“Voters say the Democrats need to do more than just oppose Trump. They’re asking, ‘What are they arguing we’ll get if they take the (House) majority?'”

For now, the Post reports, Salvanto’s polling indicates that few House seats will change hands in November — and that the GOP could very well hold its majority in the House. Of the nation’s 435 House districts, fully 85 percent will almost certainly stick with its current party affiliation come November, Salvanto projects.

If the tracking polls hold up, surf’s up this fall, and the waves will be red.