Wave goodbye to “the wave”

The far-Left media (AKA, the media) was gleeful after seeing turnout numbers for Minnesota and Wisconsin primaries on August 14. Democrat voters surpassed Republican voters by more than 250,000 in Minnesota, and outvoted the GOP by more than 80,000 in Wisconsin polling places. Overall voter turnout also was higher compared to recent primaries.

The numbers aligned with an ongoing narrative that a “blue wave” is coming this November with Democrat voters rising up to regain control of the U.S. House of Representatives, which would stall President Donald Trump’s agenda indefinitely and allow House Democrats to stir up scenarios under which Trump might be impeached.

Buried amid the chest pounding the morning after the two primaries was an astute analysis by Professor David Canon at the University of Wisconsin, a liberal bastion. He warned against reading too much into Democrat turnout “given several hot contests” in the state.  The same can be said for Minnesota:

“Competitive races for open seats, and partisan enthusiasm for many of the candidates in a highly polarized climate, fueled the high turnout,” said Kathryn Pearson, political science professor at the University of Minnesota in Minneapolis.

As primaries continue toward setting the stage for November, many tuned-in Republicans have rejected the threat of a “blue wave” because most Democrats (such as political novice Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in New York’s 14th Congressional district) are running on a “resist Trump” platform, nothing more.

Ocasio-Cortez is pushing a Socialist agenda amid a booming U.S. economy. Brilliant.

Further rejection of the blue wave theory is provided by none other than a CBS News pollster whose newly released book, “Where Did You Get That Number?”, examines why 2016 polls never saw Trump’s stunning victory coming.

Pollster and author Anthony Salvanto points out that two polls forecast the possibility of a Trump victory in 2016. Both were tracking polls. Salvanto told The New York Post he is “relying more on CBS’s ongoing tracking poll and less on random-sample telephone polling ahead of this year’s midterm elections.”

One of the key findings of Salvanto’s tracking poll suggests Democrats are unlikely to find conditions suitable for wave surfing this November. He tells the Post:

“Voters say the Democrats need to do more than just oppose Trump. They’re asking, ‘What are they arguing we’ll get if they take the (House) majority?'”

For now, the Post reports, Salvanto’s polling indicates that few House seats will change hands in November — and that the GOP could very well hold its majority in the House. Of the nation’s 435 House districts, fully 85 percent will almost certainly stick with its current party affiliation come November, Salvanto projects.

If the tracking polls hold up, surf’s up this fall, and the waves will be red.

Tale of ‘The Tape’

The markets referred to daily in the financial press are composed of Wall Street trading on regulated stock exchanges, less formal Over the Counter (NASDAQ) markets, organized commodity exchanges worldwide, and specialized trading in major financial centers across the globe.

Old timers often refer to price reporting as “the tape”, a reference to a 19th century telegraphic system that reported individual security transactions. By extension, one “fighting the tape” meant going against factual trends (i.e., the markets are poised to remain positive) because he presumes to be better informed. This also would be known as a contrarian.

In a vast industrial sector, price levels are indicative of anticipated corporate performance. Recent markets that have risen to record breaking levels have given huge thumbs up to GOP economics and the leadership of President Donald J. Trump.

High speed electronic data transfers have sent Edison’s ticker tape to museums. Modern trading desks are where authority to assume billions of dollars of risk is granted to alert young people who may not have reached their 30th birthdays.

Many believe the free market performance in a competitive marketplace driven by perfect competition is the most reliable indicator of future pricing of equities and commodities. Perfect competition is defined as the situation prevailing in a market in which buyers and sellers are so numerous and well informed that all elements of monopoly are absent, and the market price of a commodity is beyond the control of any single individual buyer or seller. It is a classical economic theory.

The world’s trading in wheat, crude oil, strategic metals and international markets for a nation’s currency, provide spot pricing (today) or a fixed future price defined by delivery at distant point of time. A user of cotton, for example, will set his raw material cost by purchasing a given amount of the commodity at a fixed price for future delivery. Sellers of cotton, farmers for example, eliminate market risk by selling their anticipated production for future delivery.

There are many investors who enter the market as speculators and their risk is their own capital based on an individual analysis of market conditions. Publicly traded stocks anticipate corporate earnings and dividends and a rising equity price indicates belief in an enterprise’s growth over time. Collective wisdom, many economists believe, has a superior predictive capability.

So, today’s “tape” is saying that tax reductions, less regulation and decentralization of decision making is good for most Americans. Anticipated growth seems to be a more laudable goal than redistribution, espoused by the left.

Let’s turn to the anti-Trump political climate that emanates from believers in progressivism. They believe so strongly in government control they are unrealistic in their analysis of public data. They are fighting the tape.

The Trump assertive leadership, while something new to Washington, has found favor among Americans. Wall Street performance says so and all the tales of gloom and doom from the disciples of the FDR New Deal and the Johnson Great Society are clearly backward looking using faulty economic logic. Similarly flawed logic was expressed, ahead of Trump’s election, by Pulitzer Prize-winning New York Times columnist Paul Krugman, who predicted that a Trump victory would trigger an economic collapse from which the United States might never recover.

Current Democrat party leadership has adopted a policy they have called “The Resistance.” This is proving to be not very useful thinking to combat international threats stirring in North Korea and Iran to world peace and prosperity. It is a policy risk that is devoid of constructive thinking at a time when it may be clear to voters that policy changes are urgently needed.

The party of Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY), California Gov. Jerry Brown, and Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) is not the party of FDR, Kennedy, or even Barack Obama. It offers no ideas about production and preaches consumption with fairness predicated on a system that buries individual responsibility.

American success is due to creative individuals who shoulder responsibility, show up on time and take pride in a job well done. Collective performance leads to collective prosperity. Yet the Democrat Party continues fighting the tape.

– Walter B. Bull, Jr.