Category: Republican legislature

Stave off the wave: Vote!

A “blue wave” is inevitable in 2018, the Democrats tell us, because Americans will reject surging economic prosperity and the restoration of our status as the indispensable world superpower. If this seems fundamentally illogical, you must remember that this is the party that supported a $1.7 billion cash ransom payment to Iran, and blindly backed deeply corrupt Hillary Clinton as the presumptive 45th President.

Early voting data in Moore County (through mid-day May 7) indicates Democrats will not be crowing, “Surf’s up!” after the May 8 primaries, which makes forecasting a blue wave (transferring power in Raleigh to Democrats) in the fall mid-terms equally tenuous.

In fact, the numbers to date forecast a “red wave”. A total of 2,718 voters requested a Republican ballot during early voting, compared to 1,158 who requested a Democrat ballot. We reported last September a statewide surge in unaffiliated voters since 2009. That trend is holding up this year loud and clear, and continues to bolster GOP support. The number of unaffiliated voters (UNAs) who have come out in Moore’s early voting will be at least 1,309, according to data compiled by CarolinaTransparency.com. They can request any ballot they desire. UNAs requested 246 Democrat ballots and 103 unaffiliated ballots. The remainder (960) requested Republican ballots.

These totals also reflect an increase in early voting participation across the board when compared to the most recent mid-term primaries in 2014. Four years ago, there were 1,642 Republican early voters and 638 Democrats. The comparisons are slightly skewed because early voting ran four days longer this time. But expectations that Republicans are unmotivated to vote in 2018 are not panning out so far.

Not only is a “blue wave” failing to build locally, but Democrats are seeing diminishing likelihood of a big national tsunami this November. On January 1, RealClearPolitics’ aggregated 2018 Congressional vote polling showed Democrats holding a 12.9% lead over Republicans. In other words, four months ago prospective voters indicated a preference for Democrat candidates in the ’18 mid-terms, 49% to 36.1%. As of May 1, that gap has been reduced by more than half, with the RCP average giving Democrats a 6.3% lead.

There are many votes yet to be cast on Tuesday, May 8. Be sure your’s is one of them.

 

NC: A pension fund model

The North Carolina Retirement Systems, the nation’s tenth largest public pension fund, experienced a 13.5 percent gain in assets in 2017. Those assets were valued at $98.3 billion, reports State Treasurer Dale R. Folwell. The performance of the fund’s investments exceeded projected annual growth of 12.8 percent.

On its face, this is great news. But the real strength of the state’s pension system is the extent to which these burgeoning assets cover pension liabilities. Literally dozens of states find themselves drowning in pension liability, and continue to spiral in the wrong direction despite years of dire warnings.

The fact that North Carolina is largely excluded from studies exposing the looming pension crisis across the country is a point Republican candidates for state legislative and U.S. House seats should hammer home on the trail in 2018. It is a tribute to sound fiscal policy, spending restraint and the absence of money starved unions.

Consider the alternative, outlined in this nearly incomprehensible report by The Rand Corporation’s Dan Grunfeld:

California leads the nation in pension underfunding. The numbers are staggering. Currently, the state government has approximately $464.4 billion in unfunded liabilities — the difference between resources that will be available in the state’s pension fund and what will be owed to retiring employees. … Nationally, state and local governments are carrying $4 trillion to $6 trillion in unfunded pension liabilities. That exceeds the combined military expenditures for every war, save World War II, fought by the U.S. since 1775.

Another way to gauge the financial health of a state’s pension fund is by examining funding ratios, the gap between funds on hand and projected pension payments. The higher the ratio, the lower the gap. North Carolina ended 2017 with a 45% funding ratio, fifth best in the nation, according to data gathered by the American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC). The national average is a woeful 33.7%. Wisconsin is the runaway leader with a 61.5% ratio; New Jersey (25.7), Mississippi (24.2), Illinois (23.3), Kentucky (20.9) and Connecticut (19.7) bring up the rear. New Jersey, Illinois and Connecticut have been governed by Democrat majority rule for decades, while Kentucky and Mississippi have had divided legislatures with a gradual shift toward Republicans since 2000.

According to ALEC’s December 2017 report:

The funding ratio is the most important measure of a pension fund’s health. Applying the estimated risk-free rate of return to the actuarial assets and actuarial liabilities reported by pension plans generates a more realistic estimate of each state’s funding ratio.

Another instructive way to understand a state’s fiscal health relative to its public pension liabilities is as a measure of per-capita liability. North Carolina also ranks highly in this category. An individual taxpayer in North Carolina technically is “on the hook” for $10,944. That’s the amount each taxpayer would owe if and when the state’s pension funds come up short. NC ranks fifth behind Wisconsin, Nebraska, Indiana and Tennessee, according to ALEC’s analysis. The dubious distinction club on the opposite end is made up of Illinois ($30,336 per taxpayer), Ohio ($30,538), Connecticut ($35,731) and Alaska ($45,689).

Population size skews these numbers, which is why California, despite owning the largest collection of unfunded liabilities, has its citizens on the hook for less than the cellar dwellers at $25,166, but still the 39th highest per-capita liability.

It is hardly a coincidence that states where pension funding negligence is most acute are the same states from which folks are fleeing and finding refuge in North Carolina.